AI tool comparison
Nothing Ever Happens vs Ternary Bonsai
Which one should you ship with? Here is the side-by-side panel verdict, pricing read, reviewer split, and community vote comparison.
AI Experiments
Nothing Ever Happens
An autonomous bot that always bets 'No' on Polymarket doom predictions—and profits
75%
Panel ship
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Community
Free
Entry
Nothing Ever Happens is a deliberately simple autonomous trading bot that buys "No" contracts on Polymarket prediction markets—specifically targeting non-sports questions about dramatic or catastrophic events. The thesis: humans systematically overestimate the probability that scary predicted events will actually happen. The bot filters markets using LLM-based criteria to exclude sports (where outcomes are more unpredictable) and focuses on the long tail of geopolitical, tech, and social predictions that tend toward "nothing happens." Built by Sterling Crispin (an artist and technologist known for his work on Apple Vision Pro), the project is equal parts satirical commentary and functional trading system. It logs all positions, P&L, and reasoning chains so you can audit its decisions. The name references an internet phrase mocking catastrophist news cycles—"nothing ever happens" is the skeptic's rebuttal to perpetual crisis framing. The HN post hit 370 points and 180+ comments in a few hours, sparking genuine debate about whether this is a sound strategy, a fun toy, or a comment on prediction market epistemology. Real-world results aren't yet published, but the idea of using an LLM as a "doom filter" for prediction markets is novel enough to be worth watching.
Open Source Models
Ternary Bonsai
1.58-bit LLMs that run at 82 tok/s on M4 Pro and on your iPhone
75%
Panel ship
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Community
Free
Entry
PrismML's Ternary Bonsai is a family of aggressively quantized language models that take the BitNet concept to its logical extreme. Each weight is constrained to one of three values — {-1, 0, +1} — with a shared FP16 scale factor per 128-weight group. No higher-precision escape hatches, no hybrid layers. The result is a 9x reduction in memory footprint versus standard 16-bit models. The numbers are striking: the 8B model fits in 1.75 GB and hits 82 tokens per second on an M4 Pro. More impressively, it runs at 27 tokens per second on an iPhone 17 Pro Max — fast enough for real-time conversation on-device. The 8B variant scores 75.5 average across standard benchmarks, outperforming many models that are 9-10x larger. The 4B and 1.7B variants push further into mobile-optimized territory. All three models are released under the Apache 2.0 license, available on Hugging Face and GitHub, and integrated into the Locally AI iOS app for immediate on-device deployment. For developers building privacy-sensitive applications or anyone tired of paying cloud inference costs, Ternary Bonsai offers a compelling on-device alternative that doesn't require a beefy GPU.
Reviewer scorecard
“Clean architecture, good logging, and a legitimately interesting hypothesis about prediction market psychology. The LLM filtering layer for 'doom vs. non-doom' questions is a smart abstraction. Even if the strategy underperforms, the codebase is a solid template for automated Polymarket bots.”
“82 tokens per second on M4 Pro in 1.75 GB is a genuinely impressive engineering achievement. For local tooling, code assistants, or any latency-sensitive workload where I don't want cloud round-trips, this hits a sweet spot that larger quantized models miss. Apache 2.0 means I can embed it in commercial apps without legal headaches.”
“The strategy looks good in backtests but Polymarket's liquidity is thin and arbitrageurs will price this edge away quickly once it's well-known. Also: 'nothing ever happens' is survivorship bias dressed as strategy—the times something DOES happen, you're wiped out. Don't put meaningful capital here.”
“A 75.5 benchmark average sounds good until you compare it against 8B models quantized with GGUF Q8 — which score similarly and have years of tooling, community support, and production deployments behind them. The 9x memory savings matter on constrained devices but less so on any machine with 16GB+ RAM. Niche but real use case.”
“Autonomous agents that trade prediction markets based on LLM-assessed epistemic calibration is a genuinely new thing. If this works at scale, it could actually make prediction markets more accurate by algorithmically correcting for human doom-bias. That's a more interesting outcome than any individual P&L.”
“On-device AI at 27 tokens per second on a phone is the inflection point that makes LLMs a platform primitive rather than a cloud service. Once inference is this cheap and fast on commodity hardware, the entire economic model of AI-as-API-call collapses. Ternary quantization is an early signal of where efficiency research is heading.”
“Sterling Crispin making a 'nothing ever happens' bot is peak art-meets-tech. It's a functional piece of commentary on the anxiety economy—we're so primed for crisis that prediction markets misprice normalcy. The aesthetic of it is as interesting as the trading logic.”
“The prospect of running a capable LLM entirely on my iPhone without sending any data to a server is genuinely exciting for creative work with sensitive material. Drafting, editing, and ideation without a cloud subscription or privacy concerns — I'd pay for that, and here it's free.”
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